Wednesday, October 28, 2020

A new model for the COVID pandemic

I spoke with the astrophysicist Niayesh Afshordi about his new pandemic model, what he has learned from it, and what the reaction has been to it.



You find more information about Niayesh's model on his website, and the paper is here.

You can join the chat with him tomorrow (Oct 29) at 5pm CET (noon Eastern Time) here.

20 comments:

  1. bee

    have you ever thought of studying virology?

    ReplyDelete
  2. In Korea, population 52M, the total of COVID19 deaths so far is 461, a tiny fraction of that for the US; in Seoul, population 10M, the total is 57. This in spite of there never being a lockdown anywhere in the country. (Albeit some bars, theaters, etc. are closed and the size of gatherings is limited.) I can't find a PWD for Seoul, but its population density is similar to NYC & LA, and, I would guess, its PWD to be pretty close to that of NYC, and both places have similar climates. Although Koreans are better at wearing masks and social distancing (to a lesser extent), I doubt that Afshordi's model would come close to reproducing Korea's (especially Seoul's) results. What is missing from their model (at least not mentioned) is the influence of contact tracing, which is haphazard at best in the US, but pursued with a vengeance in Korea. I live in a city (pop: 1.1M, 140km from Seoul) and every day get one or two text messages informing me of new cases in our area with sufficient information to determine if there was any possibility that I might have had any contact them. In addition, the victims are interviewed, and phone, credit card, etc. records are computer examined to identify individuals who might have had contact. Mildly intrusive, but a better price to pay than suffering the many tens of 1000's of deaths that getting to herd immunity would require.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Asian people have a better immune system than Western people, in general.

      Delete
    2. To MC squared: Asian Americans are more likely to catch and die from Covid 19 than non asians: https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200708.894552/full/

      Delete
  3. So we need to discuss not only how many people die from COVID and what the long-term health problems may be, but also how lockdowns, social distancing, and economic distress affect health and health care.

    This is disingenuous because "economic distress" is already a political choice.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Sabine. Can you please answer my email? I'm the editor of the Korean version of your book. I wish to get permission to use your photo. :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ? I got no email from you. (I checked the junk folder.) Could you please resend it?

      Delete
  5. Niayesh,

    Keep doing great job!

    Best wishes,

    DS

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think I prefer the John Snow Memorandum, signed by health professionals with subject matter expertise. I do not buy the "lamestream science" argument. Peer review by others in the same field is science, by those outside the field is loose opinion, sorry.

    The arguments used in this and the prior YouTube video have shaken my confidence in this channel, to the point at which I must now reconsider my acceptance of any other claims made by this author.

    Please note that the Great Barrington Declaration was financed by the American Institute for Economic Research, a red flag for anyone interested in avoiding biased opinion and paid-for conclusions.

    ReplyDelete
  7. bee

    ur opinion if Germany enters a national lockdown and violent anti-lockdown protests?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't parse that question, sorry.

      Delete
    2. sorry ,

      Boris Johnson puts U.K. on a roughly month-long lockdown as coronavirus cases top 1 million

      do you think Germany should be in a month-long lockdown starting in November ?

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    3. No. The Germans put into place some measures two weeks ago. These turned out to not be sufficient. Starting Monday we'll have tighter restrictions. In two weeks they'll see if that worked. It seems to me a good procedure, though I suspect it'll end up being a whole month anyway.

      Delete
    4. seems like an extreme measure. italy and spain has had violent anti-lockdown protests

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    5. Well, it has become clear that the largest psychological toll from the previous lockdown came from closing schools and day care places, so this time they're keeping them open here. I think this is a good decision and will prevent most of the protests, though there will without doubt be some. I am not sure though that this procedure will in the long run be sustainable. It seems incredibly likely to me we'll see a third wave early 2021, and then what?

      Delete
    6. well many small business owners were also closed down

      Delete

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