In Korea, population 52M, the total of COVID19 deaths so far is 461, a tiny fraction of that for the US; in Seoul, population 10M, the total is 57. This in spite of there never being a lockdown anywhere in the country. (Albeit some bars, theaters, etc. are closed and the size of gatherings is limited.) I can't find a PWD for Seoul, but its population density is similar to NYC & LA, and, I would guess, its PWD to be pretty close to that of NYC, and both places have similar climates. Although Koreans are better at wearing masks and social distancing (to a lesser extent), I doubt that Afshordi's model would come close to reproducing Korea's (especially Seoul's) results. What is missing from their model (at least not mentioned) is the influence of contact tracing, which is haphazard at best in the US, but pursued with a vengeance in Korea. I live in a city (pop: 1.1M, 140km from Seoul) and every day get one or two text messages informing me of new cases in our area with sufficient information to determine if there was any possibility that I might have had any contact them. In addition, the victims are interviewed, and phone, credit card, etc. records are computer examined to identify individuals who might have had contact. Mildly intrusive, but a better price to pay than suffering the many tens of 1000's of deaths that getting to herd immunity would require.
To MC squared: Asian Americans are more likely to catch and die from Covid 19 than non asians: https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200708.894552/full/
So we need to discuss not only how many people die from COVID and what the long-term health problems may be, but also how lockdowns, social distancing, and economic distress affect health and health care.
This is disingenuous because "economic distress" is already a political choice.
No. The Germans put into place some measures two weeks ago. These turned out to not be sufficient. Starting Monday we'll have tighter restrictions. In two weeks they'll see if that worked. It seems to me a good procedure, though I suspect it'll end up being a whole month anyway.
Well, it has become clear that the largest psychological toll from the previous lockdown came from closing schools and day care places, so this time they're keeping them open here. I think this is a good decision and will prevent most of the protests, though there will without doubt be some. I am not sure though that this procedure will in the long run be sustainable. It seems incredibly likely to me we'll see a third wave early 2021, and then what?
bee
ReplyDeletehave you ever thought of studying virology?
no
DeleteIn Korea, population 52M, the total of COVID19 deaths so far is 461, a tiny fraction of that for the US; in Seoul, population 10M, the total is 57. This in spite of there never being a lockdown anywhere in the country. (Albeit some bars, theaters, etc. are closed and the size of gatherings is limited.) I can't find a PWD for Seoul, but its population density is similar to NYC & LA, and, I would guess, its PWD to be pretty close to that of NYC, and both places have similar climates. Although Koreans are better at wearing masks and social distancing (to a lesser extent), I doubt that Afshordi's model would come close to reproducing Korea's (especially Seoul's) results. What is missing from their model (at least not mentioned) is the influence of contact tracing, which is haphazard at best in the US, but pursued with a vengeance in Korea. I live in a city (pop: 1.1M, 140km from Seoul) and every day get one or two text messages informing me of new cases in our area with sufficient information to determine if there was any possibility that I might have had any contact them. In addition, the victims are interviewed, and phone, credit card, etc. records are computer examined to identify individuals who might have had contact. Mildly intrusive, but a better price to pay than suffering the many tens of 1000's of deaths that getting to herd immunity would require.
ReplyDeleteAsian people have a better immune system than Western people, in general.
DeleteTo MC squared: Asian Americans are more likely to catch and die from Covid 19 than non asians: https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200708.894552/full/
DeleteSo we need to discuss not only how many people die from COVID and what the long-term health problems may be, but also how lockdowns, social distancing, and economic distress affect health and health care.
ReplyDeleteThis is disingenuous because "economic distress" is already a political choice.
Dear Sabine. Can you please answer my email? I'm the editor of the Korean version of your book. I wish to get permission to use your photo. :)
ReplyDelete? I got no email from you. (I checked the junk folder.) Could you please resend it?
DeleteIs the crisis in physics over?
ReplyDeleteAny new model?
DeleteNiayesh,
ReplyDeleteKeep doing great job!
Best wishes,
DS
You are still confusing opinion with fact.
ReplyDeletebee
ReplyDeleteur opinion if Germany enters a national lockdown and violent anti-lockdown protests?
I can't parse that question, sorry.
Deletesorry ,
DeleteBoris Johnson puts U.K. on a roughly month-long lockdown as coronavirus cases top 1 million
do you think Germany should be in a month-long lockdown starting in November ?
No. The Germans put into place some measures two weeks ago. These turned out to not be sufficient. Starting Monday we'll have tighter restrictions. In two weeks they'll see if that worked. It seems to me a good procedure, though I suspect it'll end up being a whole month anyway.
Deleteseems like an extreme measure. italy and spain has had violent anti-lockdown protests
DeleteWell, it has become clear that the largest psychological toll from the previous lockdown came from closing schools and day care places, so this time they're keeping them open here. I think this is a good decision and will prevent most of the protests, though there will without doubt be some. I am not sure though that this procedure will in the long run be sustainable. It seems incredibly likely to me we'll see a third wave early 2021, and then what?
Deletewell many small business owners were also closed down
Delete