tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post2787663285287098789..comments2021-06-20T17:43:21.836-04:00Comments on Sabine Hossenfelder: Backreaction: Researchers and coffee consumptionSabine Hossenfelderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-56824402870224542652013-08-22T05:23:02.486-04:002013-08-22T05:23:02.486-04:00Because I hate excel! Just typing the word causes ...Because I hate excel! Just typing the word causes me mental pain. I think it's because I associate it with university administration, something I normally try to avoid contact with at all means.Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-20171614806552321732013-08-20T19:30:16.420-04:002013-08-20T19:30:16.420-04:00Bee - I'm disappointed.. why no log/log plot?Bee - I'm disappointed.. why no log/log plot? Anonymous Snowboarderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13705929076819672791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-20191545585606003872013-08-20T10:31:09.086-04:002013-08-20T10:31:09.086-04:00Oh for God's sake, this is really silly.
Coff...Oh for God's sake, this is really silly.<br /><br />Coffee has got nothing to do with productive scientific research. Zip, zilch, <i>zero</i>. <br /><br />It's nicotine that does it. We lived in rags and huts until we discovered tobacco. Shortly thereafter we had cars and planes and skyscrapers, and e-lec-tri-city. <br /><br />:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-32823405766753999052013-08-19T19:01:40.609-04:002013-08-19T19:01:40.609-04:00Yes, if what you want is a causal hypothesis, it g...Yes, if what you want is a <i>causal</i> hypothesis, it gets a lot trickier.<br /><br />You could test it to some extent by claiming that the GDP-coffee correlation and the GDP-researcher correlation are both stronger than the coffee-researcher correlation. If that claim held up, it would pretty much kill any suggestion that there's a direct causal coffee-researcher link, if anyone was silly Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04484470826735770498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-6712683560870560142013-08-19T09:20:44.249-04:002013-08-19T09:20:44.249-04:00Well, I guess if the null hypothesis is that each ...Well, I guess if the null hypothesis is that each country irrespective of their researchers fraction consumes coffee somewhere in the observed range, then the probability that just by chance the 80 countries with a small fraction of researchers consume basically no coffee is indeed tiny. Of course, as I said in my post, that doesn't make much sense as a null hypothesis. It would make more Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-23919431566701566232013-08-19T05:47:41.431-04:002013-08-19T05:47:41.431-04:00Alternatively, there's a formula here, which i...Alternatively, there's a formula <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient#Use_the_exact_distribution" rel="nofollow">here</a>, which integrates to give <a href="http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Integrate+%281-r%5E2%29%5E56%2FBeta%280.5%2C57%29+from+0.780+to+1.000" rel="nofollow">p=3 x 10^-25</a>.<br /><br />It's getting smaller every time I Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04484470826735770498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-57195774188496015642013-08-19T05:19:40.265-04:002013-08-19T05:19:40.265-04:00Yes, the numbers are quite striking. I've trie...Yes, the numbers are quite striking. I've tried to do it a little more reliably, but it isn't very easy. (Apparently, if you have Mathematica 9, you can use CorrelationTest to get a p-value. it doesn't appear to be in 8, which I have.)<br /><br />The PMCC is generated by Excel, as Arun said. Actually, r=0.780, which is even higher. It's the squared value that is 0.608.<br /><br />Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04484470826735770498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-14387248445266611852013-08-19T02:51:21.834-04:002013-08-19T02:51:21.834-04:00Though, if I think about it, the figure is visuall...Though, if I think about it, the figure is visually very misleading because one doesn't see that there's like 100 points or so crammed into the lower left corner, basically on top of each other. Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-52209092211432902402013-08-19T02:40:11.314-04:002013-08-19T02:40:11.314-04:00Bob: I have a hard time believing your numbers. Bob: I have a hard time believing your numbers. Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-81169205449384688082013-08-18T15:57:17.706-04:002013-08-18T15:57:17.706-04:00The product moment correlation coefficient for thi...The product moment correlation coefficient for this data is 0.608; For 116 data points, the critical value for five sigma is 0.445. <br /><br />You have about 8 sigma here: that's p~10^-15Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04484470826735770498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-65373010960429101602013-08-18T11:09:02.264-04:002013-08-18T11:09:02.264-04:00Paul Erdős' colleague Alfréd Rényi said, "...Paul Erdős' colleague Alfréd Rényi said, "a mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems" (Erdos also did speed). High autists/Aspergers are focussed by stimulants. Some side effects may obtain.<br /><br />The US Department of Education identifies the Severely and Profoundly Gifted, to <a href="http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/ritalin3.htm" rel="nofollow">destroy Uncle Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05056804084187606211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-52562845798481655682013-08-18T10:47:02.360-04:002013-08-18T10:47:02.360-04:00There should be a "Format Trendline" and...There should be a "Format Trendline" and the options in that allow you to display the equation. From your spreadsheet I get<br /><br />y = 0.0011x + 0.7341<br />R^2=0.60786Arunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03451666670728177970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-32973193231050612462013-08-18T09:15:41.411-04:002013-08-18T09:15:41.411-04:00Hi Bee,
What this has me now wondering is which ...Hi Bee,<br /><br /><br />What this has me now wondering is which of the two elements one should consider as causal and which resultant; or which fundamental as to having the other emergent :-) <br /><br /><br /><i><b>“I have measured out my life with coffee spoons.”</b></i><br /><br />-T.S. Eliot, “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock”<br /><br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />PhilPhil Warnellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15671311338712852659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-13962387278758842642013-08-18T08:30:45.476-04:002013-08-18T08:30:45.476-04:00Another similar and amusing food-related correlati...Another similar and amusing food-related correlation can apparently be found between <a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/the-curious-wavefunction/2012/11/20/chocolate-consumption-and-nobel-prizes-a-bizarre-juxtaposition-if-there-ever-was-one/" rel="nofollow">chocolate consumption and Nobel prizes</a>.Bart Coppenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473287226891840779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-42456277194973606222013-08-18T06:45:24.293-04:002013-08-18T06:45:24.293-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.MarkusMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03431499396962852389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-77468495131954548342013-08-18T06:17:57.355-04:002013-08-18T06:17:57.355-04:00And what would you say of this one. It even sounds...And what would you say of this one. It even sounds plausible:<br /><br />The Effect of Sexual Activity on Wages<br /><br />The purpose of this study is to estimate whether sexual activity is associated with wages, and also to estimate potential interactions between individuals’ characteristics, wages and sexual activity. The central hypothesis behind this research is that sexual activity, like uair01https://www.blogger.com/profile/14538242264866015155noreply@blogger.com