tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post5681134834821682015..comments2023-09-27T07:44:19.769-04:00Comments on Sabine Hossenfelder: Backreaction: Book review: “Thinking, fast and slow” by Daniel KahnemanSabine Hossenfelderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-58518459728645474632014-04-30T05:56:24.507-04:002014-04-30T05:56:24.507-04:00"This regrettable sentence suggests a designe...<i>"This regrettable sentence suggests a designer."</i><br /><br />No, it doesn't. A mechanism can certainly evolve. "Mechanism" doesn't imply a designer any more than "structure" does.<br />Phillip Helbighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12067585245603436809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-58025017573117539252014-04-29T12:16:07.532-04:002014-04-29T12:16:07.532-04:00“The brains s of humans and other animals contain ...“The brains s of humans and other animals contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.”<br /><br />This regrettable sentence suggests a designer. Apparently the reviewer, and the author, overlooked this comment and by the way, the concepts of evolution. A better sentence could be something like “ the brain’s structure of humans and other vertebrates (would be very useful to AEspinelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14508462674571748084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-66486173549099218932012-08-12T11:54:20.764-04:002012-08-12T11:54:20.764-04:00Hi Bee,
In organizations, failure is always a bla...Hi Bee,<br /><br />In organizations, failure is always a blame game. The options for an individual to decide to change are many more. Boredom is one. Having learned something is another. etc.<br /><br />-ArunArunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03451666670728177970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-77972724619718165602012-08-12T06:40:29.335-04:002012-08-12T06:40:29.335-04:00Hi Arun,
I don't see why admitting failure is...Hi Arun,<br /><br />I don't see why admitting failure is more difficult for organizations than for individuals. If there are several people involved, one can always try to blame somebody else or "the system". A person can only blame herself. Best,<br /><br />B.Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-55555647528293146812012-08-12T06:38:40.505-04:002012-08-12T06:38:40.505-04:00Hi Plato,
Yes, Kahneman relates his elaborations ...Hi Plato,<br /><br />Yes, Kahneman relates his elaborations to Taleb's black swans too. Basically, his point is that we're not good in judging the risk of events we have no experience with. This is what this quotation alludes to<br /><br />“When it comes to rare probabilities, our mind is not designed to get things quite right. For the residents of a planet that maybe exposed to events noSabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-58096698731251721652012-08-11T21:33:16.199-04:002012-08-11T21:33:16.199-04:00Lastly,
While these writings are disparate pieces...Lastly,<br /><br />While these writings are disparate pieces, do they indeed come together under this post book review?? As a scientist and mathematics person are you not intrigued about "the pattern?" I was shocked.....yet is made sense.<br /><br />Now Nassim adds dimension to the subject. "<i>He calls for cancellation of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, saying that the PlatoHagelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00849253658526056393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-59933174137975390942012-08-11T21:17:07.142-04:002012-08-11T21:17:07.142-04:00Hi Bee,
Taleb was collaborating with Benoit Mande...Hi Bee,<br /><br /><i>Taleb was collaborating with Benoit Mandelbrot on a general theory of risk management</i> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb#Collaborations" rel="nofollow">Collaborations</a><br /><br />A simple assumption about heads and tails, leads to bell curves and such?<br /><br />Taleb, N. N. (2008) Edge article: <a href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/PlatoHagelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00849253658526056393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-4389746290895883312012-08-11T21:03:08.889-04:002012-08-11T21:03:08.889-04:00Bee writes to Goitis:Well, the whole point of Kahn...<b>Bee writes to Goitis</b>:<i>Well, the whole point of Kahneman's book <b>is that it is possible to guide your brain</b> - to some extent.</i><br /><br />Ultimately this is the setting for which your conclusions guide your perspective, yet, it is when we look back, one can choose too, "guide their brain?" <br /><br /><b>Bee</b>:<i>He spends a whole chapter explaining that people PlatoHagelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00849253658526056393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-25264341023726240112012-08-11T01:45:47.283-04:002012-08-11T01:45:47.283-04:00Hi Bee,
Sorry, typing on the iPad is slow, and I ...Hi Bee, <br />Sorry, typing on the iPad is slow, and I tend to be telegraphic. A person may want to persevere on in something for a variety of personal reasons. In an organization, however, admission of failure means heads must roll, and so admissions of failure are rare. This results in throwing in good money after bad. <br /><br />The purpose of reading your reviews IS to be biased by them.Arunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03451666670728177970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-76905397835029898752012-08-11T01:31:13.465-04:002012-08-11T01:31:13.465-04:00Hi Phil,
Well, let me know what you think when yo...Hi Phil,<br /><br />Well, let me know what you think when you're done reading. And don't let yourself be biased by my review ;o) Best,<br /><br />B.Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-85689456613509599072012-08-11T01:30:22.038-04:002012-08-11T01:30:22.038-04:00Hi Plato,
You say that the intuitions are a stati...Hi Plato,<br /><br />You say that the intuitions are a statistical assessment of past memories. That's true in a sloppy way, in that the brain tries to come to some conclusion from the memories. But what I'm saying is that this conclusion is not the correct one you would get if you'd do the statistics correctly.<br /><br />Let me give you a simple example. In your life you've met Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-57049477190853034552012-08-11T01:14:56.717-04:002012-08-11T01:14:56.717-04:00Hi Giotis,
Well, the whole point of Kahneman'...Hi Giotis,<br /><br />Well, the whole point of Kahneman's book is that it is possible to guide your brain - to some extent. Basically, his argument is that normally everything works just fine spontaneously. But there are instances where, for one reason or the other, the spontaneous "insight" is wrong. He compares this to optical illusions, for example the <a href="http://www.rit.eduSabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-39146647223689721522012-08-11T01:05:50.082-04:002012-08-11T01:05:50.082-04:00Hi Arun,
"The personal sunk cost fallacy lik...Hi Arun,<br /><br /><i>"The personal sunk cost fallacy likely has a different dynamic than the organizational sunk cost fallacy."</i><br /><br />It is probably the case that organizations have different ways to come to decisions because there are usually more people involved. Is that what you mean?<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />B.Sabine Hossenfelderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06151209308084588985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-1398739597717806892012-08-10T17:50:11.078-04:002012-08-10T17:50:11.078-04:00The fast and slow human thinking can be compared t...The fast and slow human thinking can be compared to spreading of gravitational and light waves in vacuum and/or longitudinal and transverse waves at the water surface. The intuitive thinking may not be misleading more than the strictly deterministic, if its follows a sufficiently high number of facts at the same moment. In this context the reading of articles <a href="http://Zephirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06010623752049244967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-68547598821076238422012-08-10T13:33:51.264-04:002012-08-10T13:33:51.264-04:00Lastly.....
you might find this interesting. A v...Lastly.....<br /><br /><br />you might find <a href="http://youtu.be/vxbxXBrOPS8" rel="nofollow">this</a> interesting. A very simple assumption.<br /><br />Best,PlatoHagelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00849253658526056393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-50157292972757701922012-08-10T13:05:29.760-04:002012-08-10T13:05:29.760-04:00.....
Of course it made me think of Follow Up to ........<br /><br />Of course it made me think of <a href="http://www.eskesthai.com/2009/06/follow-up-to-economic-manhattan-project.html" rel="nofollow">Follow Up to the Economic Manhattan Project</a><br /><br />Maybe this is the organizational effect Arun is speaking about? <br /><br />I never quite could get the economy either, until I understood the idea of <a href="http://youtu.be/3Xq6h31UCKQ" PlatoHagelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00849253658526056393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-63293124355923481462012-08-10T12:44:14.546-04:002012-08-10T12:44:14.546-04:00Hi Bee,
The human brain does not make very accura...Hi Bee,<br /><br /><i>The human brain does not make very accurate statistical computations without deliberate effort. But often we don’t make such an effort. Instead, we use shortcuts. We substitute questions, extrapolate from available memories, and try to construct plausible and coherent stories. We tend to underestimate uncertainty, are influenced by the way questions are framed, and our PlatoHagelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00849253658526056393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-37507839895473100392012-08-10T11:17:43.597-04:002012-08-10T11:17:43.597-04:00IQs in a committee add like ohms in parallel resis...IQs in a committee add like ohms in parallel resistors. The second worst possible decision after a defective consensus is to do nothing, the worst is to do it harder. Those are the managerial defaults, hence the US social services agenda - welfare, law enforcement, finance.<br /><br />http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/aha.jpgUncle Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05056804084187606211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-78921844402339257722012-08-10T08:47:30.679-04:002012-08-10T08:47:30.679-04:00Bee to tell you the truth I think you are overanal...Bee to tell you the truth I think you are overanalyzing things.<br /><br />You can't guide your brain; be spontaneous. <br /><br />But then again I don't know maybe this is a German thing:-)Giotishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03594944884584261018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-15706455953605427112012-08-10T07:01:44.383-04:002012-08-10T07:01:44.383-04:00Hi Bee,
A nice review of a book that attempts to ...Hi Bee,<br /><br />A nice review of a book that attempts to have us further understand the decision making process; will put this on my list of what to read.<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />PhilPhil Warnellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15671311338712852659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22973357.post-85677717721884084142012-08-09T07:21:45.637-04:002012-08-09T07:21:45.637-04:00The personal sunk cost fallacy likely has a differ...The personal sunk cost fallacy likely has a different dynamic than the organizational sunk cost fallacy.Arunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03451666670728177970noreply@blogger.com